Whereas Wild Card weekend lived as much as the title for the NFL, the divisional spherical had much less drama and pleasure. The Philadelphia Eagles blew out the New York Giants and the Cincinnati Bengals managed the Buffalo Payments. The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs needed to maintain on in opposition to the Jacksonville Jaguars after Patrick Mahomes bought damage, whereas protection dominated the day with the San Francisco 49ers up ending the Dallas Cowboys in a low-scoring affair.
Previous to the divisional spherical, we shared with you that one analytics knowledge level had predicted the primary six video games of the playoffs. Whereas the DVOA rankings (Protection-adjusted Worth Over Common) weren’t capable of be excellent through the divisional spherical, it did predict three of the 4 video games appropriately:
- Philadelphia Eagles (third) beat the New York Giants (twenty first)
- San Francisco 49ers (2nd) beat the Dallas Cowboys (sixth)
- Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (4th) beat the Jacksonville Jaguars (thirteenth)
The place DVOA didn’t be predictive was the Cincinnati Bengals (fifth) defeating the Buffalo Payments (1st). The Payments shedding to a crew that had simply over half the DVOA (18.1% to 35%) was surprising.
To be clear, DVOA isn’t excellent nor wouldn’t it declare to foretell the winners of sure video games. Too many variables that can’t be codified, like climate, accidents, officiating and extra, can play a job in a one-game pattern. We virtually noticed how a serious harm, to Patrick Mahomes, allowed the Jaguars to remain in a sport that the information mentioned shouldn’t be shut.
Given the accuracy of DVOA up to now within the playoffs (predicting 9 of 10 video games), we are able to’t assist however check out what it could educate us about championship video games this weekend.
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs vs the Cincinnati Bengals
- General DVOA: Kansas Metropolis 4th vs Cincinnati fifth
- Offensive DVOA: Kansas Metropolis 1st vs Cincinnati 4th
- Defensive DVOA: Cincinnati eleventh vs Kansas Metropolis seventeenth
Edge: Chiefs – Two superb offenses and two lesser defenses collide on this matchup. DVOA can’t keep in mind whether or not Mahomes is proscribed however that issue, clearly, might play an enormous function in bringing the Chiefs top-ranked offense down
Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers
- General DVOA: San Francisco 2nd vs Philadelphia third
- Offensive DVOA: Philadelphia third vs San Francisco sixth
- Defensive DVOA: San Francisco 1st vs Philadelphia sixth
Edge: 49ers – One other very shut matchup the place each groups are top-10 on each offense and protection, resulting in their second and third rankings general. The distinction is that the Niners protection has a bigger hole than the Eagles offense does.
If what occurred throughout Wild Card weekend and the divisional spherical continues this week, we’re going to see two very carefully contested video games this Sunday. The Mahomes harm throws the AFC matchup within the air however, assuming he’s near regular, the highest seed within the AFC will head to the Tremendous Bowl whereas the second-seeded 49ers journey their protection to the massive sport.
Whereas DVOA was predictive 90% of the time up to now this yr, a fast look again ultimately yr offers a counterpoint for its predictive nature. The Tremendous Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams have been the fifth-rated crew whereas the Bengals have been all the way in which down at 17. The 4 highest-rated groups didn’t even make it to the championship video games final season.
Will DVOA have an ideal weekend once more after a hiccup final week or will Mahomes harm, Joe Burrow’s dominance over Kansas Metropolis, Philadelphia’s offense or Brock Purdy’s limitations carry the analytics predictions again right down to earth?